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When Is The Time To Buy Bitcoin
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As troubles in the traditional banking sector grow, bitcoin is benefitting, and risk sentiment has turned bullish on the once-beleaguered coin. Starting 2023 at around $16,600, the bitcoin price has risen a dramatic 70% and now sits around $26,969 as of 28 March.
One of the primary drivers of the recent rise in bitcoin price is the goldilocks market regime that appears to be developing. Inflation in the US has fallen from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 6.0%, and consequently the Fed has been able to slow its rate hikes. Markets are pricing rate cuts for 2023, and this is bolstering risk assets such as equities and crypto. Crypto has also already priced in a lot of bad news recently, leaving the way open for upside moves.
Before the early 2023 bull run, bitcoin was having a miserable time. This was due to several events, both crypto-specific and part of the broader macro backdrop. You can see the current BTC price on the chart below and its historical progress through 2022.
Moreover, there are ongoing fears that the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates will plunge the world into a recession. Our recession probability indicator remains over 70%. Bitcoin is yet to experience a serious global recession, but we expect one would limit any potential upside in price action. This is because during times of economic uncertainty and weak growth, investors may be more inclined to sell risky assets like bitcoin and seek safer investments such as government bonds.
One exercise is to see how low prices could get were the NASDAQ to suffer a 2000-style crash. After all, earlier in 2021, the bitcoin and NASDAQ correlation reached highs of almost 80%. So where the NASDAQ went, bitcoin followed. The correlation has declined recently, but should it rise again, the historical drawdowns of NASDAQ could be informative.
Back in 2000, the NASDAQ suffered a 78% drawdown. As of November 2022, the NASDAQ is in a 27% drawdown. A repeat of the 2000-style drawdown would put the NASDAQ at 3,500. So where would crypto be if NASDAQ were trading at this level We estimate a regression between bitcoin/ethereum returns and NASDAQ returns from 2020 onwards. Based on this relationship, we find:
We think bitcoin is a worthwhile long-term investment. However, we also note that bitcoin is extremely volatile. That means it experiences large price movements over short periods. Before investing, you must understand the risks involved: you could lose all or a large portion of your investment. Never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
However, to invest in cryptocurrency, we must first understand it. Crypto tokens are unlike any traditional asset class. And they are all different. Just because you understand bitcoin, does not mean you know how ethereum works. Our video on bitcoin fundamentals can help you understand how bitcoin prices fluctuate and how to assess trends in important bitcoin metrics.
We suggest paying attention to the long-term macro backdrop when asking yourself, should I buy bitcoin right now Your exposure to bitcoin needs to be appropriately sized so that you can survive 50% to 80% drawdowns. Drawdowns provide good entry levels for exposure, but we would not go max long in an environment of rising central bank rates and falling global growth momentum.
The idea is that when prices are high, you can afford less of the asset. But when prices are low, you can afford more. When the market recovers, you benefit from having bought more shares at the lower price. Please note that using this strategy will not always result in a profit or necessarily protect you from falling prices.
For trading bitcoin over the next two to four weeks, we are slightly bearish. That means we expect falling prices. However, we think bitcoin is a good long-term investment for the next one to three years and are bullish overall. That means we expect prices to rise in the long term.
As with all investments, the value of bitcoin can rise as well as fall. While it is unlikely that bitcoin will suffer a complete loss of value, investors must be prepared to suffer drawdowns of between 50% and 80%. We recommend small allocations and diversification of your portfolio. Never invest what you cannot afford to lose.
Traditional wisdom says you should buy low and sell high. But whether you should sell bitcoin depends on your investment horizon, risk appetite and financial goals. Although some websites speculate that certain days of the week are better or worse than others for selling bitcoin, we believe that any decision to buy or sell should be based on an analysis of crypto fundamentals.
Smart contract platforms: after bitcoin, the big innovation was to have blockchains that were more programmable. These could host smart contracts or decentralised applications and have allowed the emergence of the metaverse and defi. Ethereum (ETH) is the most popular version of a smart contract platform. As well as ethereum, we also include some key competitors. The constituents of this index are: Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), Solana (SOL), Fantom (FTM), VeChain (VET), Terra (LUNA), EOS (EOS), and Chainlink (LINK). We also include Polkadot (DOT) which allows interoperability between blockchains and the use of smart contracts via parachains.
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However, 2023 has seen a powerful resurgence across the digital asset markets. In January, BTC rallied over 40% from a low of just over $US16,000 to a monthly high of almost $US24,000. Despite this surge, Bitcoin remains over 65% lower than its all-time high value, with many other cryptocurrencies even further off their peaks.
As for whether this downturn marks the beginning of a long-term trend or a temporary blip, Giberstein believes the market could remain challenging for up to two years, but added things could worsen during that time.
If the past is prologue, then the current dip (or crash, depending on your perspective) could bounce back as it did last year, when prices fell to similar levels before returning to pre-dip levels and even peaking in the autumn. But of course, they might not.
Experts say the best time of day to buy cryptocurrency is early in the morning before the NYSE opens since values tend to rise as the day goes on. Be sure to pay attention to slight daily fluctuations across different cryptocurrencies since trends will vary from coin to coin.
Prices are lower when the market is less busy. Although you can trade cryptocurrencies at any time of day, the market is more active during typical work hours and less active early in the morning, at night, and on the weekends.
Generally, cryptocurrency prices start low on Monday and rise throughout the week. When the weekend hits, prices tend to drop until market activity begins the following Monday. Since prices are likely to be at their lowest point following a weekend of low trading activity, Monday is the best time of the week to buy cryptocurrency.
Pricing trends carry on as weeks turn into months, and new trading patterns emerge that raise and lower the price of various cryptocurrencies over time. Since crypto trends are constantly in flux, deciding the best time of the month to buy cryptocurrency will require patience as you get to know the pricing trends of your favorite coins.
For now, the best time to buy cryptocurrency is toward the end of the month. Cryptocurrency prices tend to rise in the first weeks of the month before they collapse and continue to trend downward through the end of the month.
If you know when to buy Bitcoin, you can get it at a better exchange rate than if you bought it at a different time. Like stocks on the stock market, the value of Bitcoin can change throughout the day.
Cash App does charge a fee when you buy and sell Bitcoin, and they will send you a Form 1099-B for determining any taxes on your cryptocurrency sales. Like the other digital payment platforms, they also have a high standard of security.
But because the crypto markets are mainly unregulated and unstable, it has been challenging to get SEC approval. The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy EFT is the first bitcoin-related ETF that trades under the ticker BITO.
One lesson for investors seems obvious: If you want to buy Bitcoin, don't buy it today, just when mainstream investors' fascination is higher than its almost ever been. Wait for those investors to move on to other things.
But that reasoning also lands prospective investors in a kind of Catch-22. Without cash flow or earnings to go by, Bitcoin investors can ultimately point to little other than the broader public's interest in and acceptance of Bitcoin to justify Bitcoin's price. And when that fascination demonstrably drops, shouldn't it follow that Bitcoin's value proposition has too 59ce067264